Isn’t Clive Thomspon great?
Here’s an introduction to one of his latest pieces: Is the Tipping Point Toast?
These days, it’s become popular to talk about “influentials” — people who are so charismatic and well-connected that they can start or accelerate trends. It was one of the big ideas in Malcolm Gladwell’s The Tipping Point, and it positively captivates marketers: The entire concept of “viral” marketing is based on the idea that if you get a cool product or idea into the right people’s hands, those elite folk will tip the product into a nationwide trend. It’s an intuitive picture of the world, because it matches our deep, unstated assumption that the grown-up world is basically like high school. Everyone wants to copy the cool kids.
But is this really how trends work?
It’s a good read, especially if some of your thoughts on marketing are influenced by Gladwell. And really, how could they not? It’s amazing how many times that book is still cited in my professional life - and I’m not complaining. I still think there’s good reason to buy into the roles of mavens, connectors and salesmen but social media didn’t really exist when Gladwell wrote Tipping Point, so we need to evolve the theory a little.
Just as we’re all “prosumers” in this ever-quickening age (watch the accompanying video with this), through social media and 2.0-type tools, we all have the potential to be powerful connectors.
And that’s basically the gist of this article:
He (Duncan Watts, a network scientist at Columbia University) has analyzed email patterns and found that highly connected people are not, in fact, crucial social hubs. He has written computer models of rumor spreading and found that your average slob is just as likely as a well-connected person to start a huge new trend.
So, what happens when you try to talk to a record label executive about this shift:
Not everyone appreciates the mind bomb Watts has tossed into their midst. He says one music executive pronounced his work “bullshit” on the spot. But a growing group of marketers believes Watts is radically altering the way companies attempt to produce trends.
In the executive’s defense, not many senior marketing types are hip to Watts’ new theory.
Read the article and decide for yourself. As for my opinion, I think the quality of the product will always make the difference when you’re attempting a word-of-mouth marketing campaign. Would Nickelback be as popular without radio and mass marketing?